Matric 2025: Bachelor Passes vs University Places in South Africa

As the Class of 2026 sits its final exams, many families are asking the same question: if my child passes well, will there be a university place for them? Last year's results give an honest answer. More learners than ever qualified to apply for a degree, and there were not enough first-year places for all of them.

Every figure below comes from the Department of Basic Education (DBE), the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET), Universities South Africa (USAf) or named reporting, with dates. The full list is in the Sources section.

The Class of 2025 at a glance

Different releases count different groups of candidates. DHET's statement of 13 January 2026, for example, gives about 927,000 who wrote and more than 760,000 passes. We use the DBE's own figures throughout.

From Grade 1 to matric

About 1.2 million children started Grade 1 in 2014. Eleven years later, about 778,000 sat matric as full-time candidates. That is roughly two in three of the children who started school together (our calculation from the figures above).

The record 88% pass rate counts the learners who write the exam, not the full group that started school. It is a real achievement for the Class of 2025 and their teachers, and it is also only part of the picture.

What a bachelor pass does, and doesn't, do

A bachelor pass is the highest level of NSC pass and the minimum needed to apply for a degree. In 2025, the number of bachelor passes rose by 8,700 to over 345,000, even though their share of results fell from 48% to 46% (DBE).

Universities then apply their own rules: an Admission Point Score (APS), minimum marks in specific subjects, and limited places per programme. Speaking on 22 January 2026, the Minister of Higher Education, Buti Manamela, was clear:

"A bachelor's pass does not guarantee admission to a university or to a specific programme."

The University of Pretoria shows how this plays out. For 2026, about 340,000 applications were started, about 57,000 met the requirements, about 16,000 received offers, and there were about 9,700 first-year places (as reported by Daily Maverick, 22 January 2026). Meeting the requirements, not only passing, is what counts.

You can work out an APS with our free APS calculator.

Mathematics is part of the story

Only 34% of 2025 candidates wrote Mathematics; most took Mathematical Literacy. The Mathematics pass rate fell from 69% to 64% (DBE). Many degree programmes ask for Mathematics at a set level, so the choice between Mathematics and Mathematical Literacy in Grade 9 can shape which doors are open in Grade 12. Read more in Core Maths vs Maths Lit in Grade 10.

The gap between bachelor passes and university places

For the 2025 intake, just over 202,000 first-time students were admitted to public universities. That was, in the words of Dr Luzuko Jacobs of Nelson Mandela University, "less than 60% of the 337,000 learners who achieved bachelor passes" in the Class of 2024 (University World News, 26 January 2026). USAf gives the same Class of 2024 figure of roughly 337,000 bachelor passes.

For 2026, DHET's target is 230,206 first-time entering undergraduates, growing to 236,822 by 2030. Set against the DBE's count of over 345,000 bachelor passes, that leaves about 115,000 more bachelor-pass holders than first-year places, or roughly one in three (our calculation).

DHET's own estimate is lower. In its reply to Parliament it used about 300,000 bachelor passes and put the gap at "of the order of 70,000 students annually". Not every bachelor-pass holder applies to a public university, so read the gap as a measure of pressure on places, not an exact count of learners turned away.

The pressure shows in application numbers. For 2026, Daily Maverick reported more than 177,000 first-year applications at the University of the Western Cape for 4,715 places, and more than 450,000 applications at the University of Johannesburg for an intake of 11,200. Learners usually apply to several universities, so applications are higher than the number of people applying.

University is one route, not the only one

South Africa's 50 public TVET colleges have over 560,000 enrolments (DHET, 2026). Higher Certificates and diplomas also lead to work and further study. Minister Manamela put it plainly: TVET and CET colleges "are not residual options".

See TVET Colleges in South Africa, Higher Certificate vs Diploma vs Degree and Missed APS Requirements? Your Backup Options.

What this means for learners and parents

For a learner in Grade 12 right now, the work is in the exam room. For younger learners, the figures point to two earlier moments where planning makes a difference.

In Grade 9: choosing Grade 10 subjects

Subject choices made in Grade 9 decide which subjects a learner writes in matric, and many programmes need specific subjects. In Grade 10 Subject Choices, done in Grade 9, learners complete timed Verbal, Numerical and Non-Verbal Reasoning Quizzes, explore Career Interests that show the compulsory and recommended subjects for each career, and then choose from the subjects their school offers. A teacher can review the choices before the learner receives a results report.

In Grade 11 and Grade 12: checking subjects against study plans

Tertiary Study Choices is a paid programme for Grade 11 and Grade 12 learners. Learners enter the subjects they take now, complete three timed ability quizzes and narrow their Career Interests to up to three careers. Careers that need a subject the learner doesn't take are locked and explained, and the final report warns the learner if a chosen career needs a missing subject.

Neither programme can promise a university place; nothing can. What they offer is time: the chance to spot a missing subject or a mismatch while there is still room to act. The assessments were developed with Dr Lanette Hattingh, a registered Educational Psychologist with 40+ years of experience and more than 1 million South African learner assessments.

Matric 2025 and University Places: Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

• Department of Basic Education: Class of 2025 celebrated as the education sector's brightest stars (January 2026)
• SAnews: Class of 2025 sets new national record with historic 88% pass rate (12/01/2026)
• Daily Maverick: Matric Class of 2025 achieves unprecedented 88% pass rate (12/01/2026)
• DHET: Minister Buti Manamela congratulates the Class of 2025 and outlines post-school pathways (13/01/2026)
• Daily Maverick: Bachelor's pass isn't a ticket to university, says Manamela (22/01/2026)
• University World News: After the celebration, by Dr Luzuko Jacobs (26/01/2026)
• Universities South Africa: The hard facts informing enrolment planning and admissibility at public universities (17/02/2026)
• Parliamentary Monitoring Group: DHET reply to Question NW66 (question dated 29/04/2026)